Loot, How Random is it?

[Thumbtack]

According to Blizzard, loot drops are completely random.

Although since the expansion hit, I have noticed a trend in loot drops in 5 man dungeons I dont exactly like. Making me wonder just how random loot is.

For instance we could have:

Mage
Warrior
Paladin
Rogue
Warlock

The loot more common to drop would be Druid and Shaman.

Apparently this has happened in 80% of the 5 man dungeons I have done from 61-70. The loot more likely to drop is for a class not present in the group, As if the computer generated numbers or whatever that decides loots to be dropped is basing itself off what item is needed more by classes in the dungeons and putting that item on an extremely low drop rate. Sounds corny, but whatelse is their to explain this as its happened so often already. I have even went through the trouble of having different people set the instance as it would generate a different Raid ID as I use to hear loot drops was determined right off when you enter the instance.

What everyones intake on this?

So far I havent been completely disappointed with 10 man and up dungeons like Karazhan, but I havent ran that place enough to really know.

[Kerosene]

i think i've seen way too much pally armor drop on horde side.

[Thumbtack]

I know Shaman armor must be a common drop on alliance side to, as I see more Paladins wearing Shaman gear then I do Plate/Paladin Gear.

[Stigg]

i think i've seen way too much pally armor drop on horde side.

Yep. Trying to gear up our pallys quick.

[trudelle]

We had two healing cloth gloves off the second boss in Botanica....Twice. All 4 were sharded.

[Thumbtack]

Yeah first boss dropped 2 of the hunter Shoulders I believe it was and we didnt have a hunter in the group. 2nd boss? How the **** you suppose to kill that boss anyway? No matter what strategy you use you are left taking too much damage to actually suceed in killing it.

[EphemeralIntelligence]

I remember I heard someone talking to someone else (bear with me) about the "random" decisions made on loot drops in each instance. According to them, the frequency and quality of drops (I'm unsure to what level of specifics it delves) depends on the raid/group leader, the guy in charge. I've seen evidence for this in that I regularly do 5-mans with 2 or 3 other people and, having been on the lookout, noticed such a pattern. Perhaps true, perhaps coincidence, but we know for certain nothing's really random at this level.

[Cerberus]

I've seen and heard reports of the first boss in Botanica dropping 2 librams several times. I also feel like we are getting a lot of paladrops, but this also comes naturally with a lot more paladin gear being added to the loot tables.

I've also so more "hybrid" aka sucks for anything druidgear as well as more varied shamanloot. The annoying part about paladinplate (dmg/healing, healing plate) is that no other class can make any use of it. I think this may be one of the other reasons we get the feeling it's dropping more often.

[Thumbtack]

Well I been seeing a ****load of Druid gear drop when Druids is never present. I usually keep tabs on what drops and whats can be used by someone, Druid loot is the most common drop I have seen when a druid is never present, This happens almost every instance run. 2nd on the list usually will be Warlock or Mage, whichever of those 2 is not in our group. But as for the leader of the group determining what might drop in an instance, I know that seemed to have held true in the large scale raids now where leaders set a unique Raid ID for the group and instance, although I am more convinced its a computer generated thing to where it keeps you running the same instance more times then you like to get what you want.

[Idol]

Its totally random. It's all just luck of the draw. People just get suspicious.

[Thumbtack]

I like to believe its random. But theirs nothing to convince me that its totally random, I dont think blizz would make it random anyway as they claim since they dont want people getting all their gear in 1 solid run then quit.

[Idol]

How many times have you run these instances? 4-5 times? Any trend will be completely inaccurate. 10-20? Still woefully inaccurate. Do 1000 runs, and present me with data showing that Druid Items dropped more, and then i'll believe. Until then, I say it's random, as thats what my experience has taught me.

[Tanitha]

Everyone from Guild Leaders to Blizzard is out to get you. They rig those loot tables specifically so you won't get your gear.

As I understand it they do sometimes rig things. Paladin and Shaman gear dropped for the opposing Factions just before The Burning Crusade hit with great frequency.

I've also read that loot tables (And thus percentages) are held across a server. So if you have a 1% chance of obtaining the item and you are the only one on the server killing that mob you will get it within a 100 attempts. If however a hundred other players are also killing that mob ... your percentages change quite a bit.

[shrug] But I've been lucky and have gotten what I wanted. So far.

[rgirty]

I've noticed that druid and pally gear does drop when i run instances.

I don't run with either class so it is a real shame. I normally have at least 3 cloth classes.

[Oatmealsmurf]

Yeah first boss dropped 2 of the hunter Shoulders I believe it was and we didnt have a hunter in the group. 2nd boss? How the **** you suppose to kill that boss anyway? No matter what strategy you use you are left taking too much damage to actually suceed in killing it.

The second boss in botanica isn't so hard. you need to kill the seedlings he spawns or they do annoying things. This means periodically using aoe. Warlocks with Seed of Corruption works best as casting it on the boss will kill all adds almost instantly. Then periodically he'll go treeform and channel tranquility. When that happens run around the corner out of LOS so his adds don't get tranquility too burn em down as fast as possible and get back on the boss.

[rgirty]

It seems like there are a ton of fights now where the tank stays on the boss while all the dps kills some sort of spawning add.

It is almost like you are forced to have xx amount of dps or you fail.

[Inferna]

It depends on how the generator is set up, some will yield appropriate distribution rates over different intervals. You have to realize that it is impossible to truly have a 'random' event that is governed by some algorithm that spits out a number based on a pre-defined set of rules.

[Amurko]

This might provide some insight: http://www.cs.tufts.edu/comp/250P/classpages/coupon.html

Think of it as collecting gear for all 9 classes instead of collecting all 10 coupons. You're gonna need far more than 9 runs on average.

[Justinledwards]

Well, our guild ran Karahzan 1st time last night and downed Attumen. Dropped two purplez (no steed unfortunately), one plate one cloth... One very happy tank and one very happy priest...

For every story where u didn't get what u want, there's going to be one where someone did..

And I have heard what Tanitha heard, the loot tables are server-level not party-level.

So when you, mage, are in that instance QQing about pally drops, just remember there is a pally in another instance of your instance QQing about clothie drops :-)

[Cerberus]

The loot is determined by the first person to enter the instance is what I heard from sources that should be VERY reliable and unmentioned. Once a character has entered the instance ("spawning" it) every boss drop (at least) is determined for that instance. Meaning X boss will drop Y loot at any given point for that instance (Instance ID "something").

This is ofc totally irrelevant to the actual % chance something has of dropping, but might be able to spark some more paranoia ;)

[ocellaris]

It is almost like you are forced to have xx amount of dps or you fail.

Correct. How else do you want them to do it? Many of the BC encounters requires a certain ammount of DPS or you fail. This requires a decent group of people to all have worked on their gear to succeed (especially in Heroics).

The loot is determined by the first person to enter the instance is what I heard from sources that should be VERY reliable and unmentioned. Once a character has entered the instance ("spawning" it) every boss drop (at least) is determined for that instance. Meaning X boss will drop Y loot at any given point for that instance (Instance ID "something").

100% false. I've cleared parts of BWL twice on the exact same Raid ID (server problem) and different loot dropped each time.

[ocellaris]

Also, the loot system has been revealed a couple of times by ex employees. Basically it works on a system like this

Set #1
1-35 Loot 1
31-60 Loot 2
61-85 Loot 3
85-100 Loot 4

Set #2
1-85 Nothing
86-100 Loot #5

When the boss goes down, it does a roll for all sets (Set #1 and Set #2 in this case) and there is your loot. You always get at least 1 drop because Set #1 is full. There can be more more or less items in each set (and different numbers of sets), and items can be duplicated across sets (which is how you get two of the same drop).

In TBC (non-Heroic) some end bosses always drop 2 blues and possibly a Primal Nether. That means they have at least 3 sets. Set 1 and Set 2 would be full (which is why you *always* get 2 blues), and there would be a 3rd set with the Primal Nether in it, and that set is almost entirely empty.

[babemomlover]

All gear I ever see drop is leather, mail, and plate with +intellect or +healing or something of the likes.

Maybe I'm just suspicious ;)

[bloog]

Epic trash drops in Karazhan are server wide. When some raid party gets drops, every raid party will get a drop.

Sometimes the randomization of "blue" dungeons seems to hang. You will get exactly the same boss loots for a couple of runs.

[swaldman]

I've also read that loot tables (And thus percentages) are held across a server. So if you have a 1% chance of obtaining the item and you are the only one on the server killing that mob you will get it within a 100 attempts. If however a hundred other players are also killing that mob ... your percentages change quite a bit.

Why? A percentage is merely a proportion. It's not as though there is one item to go around however many players are killing the mob....

I've never seen any evidence that it isn't simply a random[1] selection calculated on each kill.

[1] Let's not get into the whole how-can-you-have-a-truly-random-number thing. It's going to be near enough to random not to matter.

[Dark Matter]

Yeah first boss dropped 2 of the hunter Shoulders I believe it was and we didnt have a hunter in the group. 2nd boss? How the **** you suppose to kill that boss anyway? No matter what strategy you use you are left taking too much damage to actually suceed in killing it.

The loot drop rate is a fairly stable % over a large number of kills. I remember running Ragnaros for 7 months, before our guild had one pair of T2 Priest legs drop. However other guilds were sharding them. It can be very frustrating, but there is no conspiracy

Drop rate for:
Commander Sarannis
Badge of Justice 0.07% (1 / 1,373)
Towering Mantle of the Hunt 32.77% (450 / 1,373)
Prismatic Mittens of Mending 32.19% (442 / 1,373)
Libram of the Lightbringer 31.17% (428 / 1,373)
Syrannis' Mystic Sheen 30.74% (422 / 1,373)
Revenger 27.09% (372 / 1,373)
Codex: Prayer of Fortitude III 0.15% (2 / 1,373)
Tome of Conjure Food VIII 0.15% (2 / 1,373)

High Botanist Freywinn
Badge of Justice 0.12% (1 / 855)
Enchanted Thorium Torque 19.65% (168 / 855)
Stormreaver Warblades 18.13% (155 / 855)
Obsidian Clodstompers 16.37% (140 / 855)
Energis Armwraps 16.02% (137 / 855)
Aegis of the Sunbird 14.39% (123 / 855)
Plans: Earthpeace Breastplate 0.82% (7 / 855)
Pattern: White Remedy Cape 0.12% (1 / 855)

Thorngrin the Tender
Pattern: Battlecast Pants 0.66% (5 / 759)
Badge of Justice 0.13% (1 / 759)
Arcane Netherband 18.84% (143 / 759)
Runed Dagger of Solace 16.86% (128 / 759)
Dreamer's Dragonstaff 15.68% (119 / 759)
Gauntlets of Cruel Intention 15.42% (117 / 759)
Ring of Umbral Doom 15.28% (116 / 759)

Obviously the higher the number of kills logged, the closer the % drop chance is of being correct (if that make sense).

Ragnaros
Essence of Fire 36.05% (15,137 / 41,989)
Essence of the Pure Flame 16.84% (7,070 / 41,989)
Legplates of Wrath 16.56% (6,953 / 41,989)
Leggings of Transcendence 16.37% (6,873 / 41,989)
Netherwind Pants 16.36% (6,871 / 41,989)
Crown of Destruction 16.16% (6,785 / 41,989)
Bloodfang Pants 16.11% (6,765 / 41,989)
Nemesis Leggings 16.08% (6,753 / 41,989)
Dragonstalker's Legguards 15.67% (6,580 / 41,989)
Band of Sulfuras 15.51% (6,514 / 41,989)
Choker of the Fire Lord 15.37% (6,455 / 41,989)
Perdition's Blade 15.23% (6,393 / 41,989)
Stormrage Legguards 14.91% (6,259 / 41,989)
Band of Accuria 14.67% (6,161 / 41,989)
Dragon's Blood Cape 14.66% (6,157 / 41,989)
Cloak of the Shrouded Mists 13.56% (5,694 / 41,989)
Malistar's Defender 12.98% (5,451 / 41,989)
Onslaught Girdle 12.77% (5,362 / 41,989)
Judgement Legplates 10.41% (4,371 / 41,989)
Legplates of Ten Storms 5.63% (2,365 / 41,989)
Bonereaver's Edge 4.99% (2,097 / 41,989)
Shard of the Flame 4.46% (1,874 / 41,989)
Spinal Reaper 4.41% (1,851 / 41,989)

DM

[bloog]

Blizzard hides behind drop numbers averaged over all realms. With "working as intended" for backup.

At times server for server, group for group items are not so random. 10 librams from 10 Sarannis kills is quite unlikely unless the drop chance is near 100%.
6 times on row exactly the same BWL loot is unlikely, especially with the gold drops matching to the penny.

Me thinks Blizzard's random generator sometimes hangs.

[swaldman]

Blizzard hides behind drop numbers averaged over all realms. With "working as intended" for backup.

At times server for server, group for group items are not so random. 10 librams from 10 Sarannis kills is quite unlikely unless the drop chance is near 100%.
6 times on row exactly the same BWL loot is unlikely, especially with the gold drops matching to the penny.

In the case of the librams, it may be that there is a high drop chance on them.

For the BWL stuff...
6 drops the same in a row is *just as likely* as any other sequence of six drops. It's just that it's one that you notice.

Let's say, for simplicity, that the boss in question has two possible drops.

The first time you go there is a 50/50 chance that you'll get drop A or B.
The second time you go, regardless of what you got the first time, there is a 50/50 chance that you'll get drop A or B.
The third time you go.... etc.

Therefore, for 6 runs:

The chance of getting ABAABA is 0.5^6 = 0.0156, or 1.56%.
The chance of getting AABBAB is also 1.56%.
The chance of getting AAAAAA is also 1.56%

The chance of *any* specific sequence is the same. In the first two cases you wouldn't think that anything out of the ordinary was happening. In the third case you notice it and cry "conspiracy!" (or buggy random number generator, or whatever).

[bloog]

What's the chance to get 240g43s00c from Nefarian 6 times on row ?

But I'm not talking just 6 equal drops on row. I'm talking 10 bosses with 2 items for 6 weeks. 120 drops and exactly the same amounts of gold.

[swaldman]

What's the chance to get 240g43s00c from Nefarian 6 times on row ?

But I'm not talking just 6 equal drops on row. I'm talking 10 bosses with 2 items for 6 weeks. 120 drops and exactly the same amounts of gold.

Hmm.
I don't know how the gold amounts work, so I can't comment on that - I've never paid much attention to it.

Re the drops... exactly the same logic applies. That combination of drops is JUST AS LIKELY as any other specific combination of drops.

Having said that, as well as being a combination that we notice, it is also one that could be programmatically different to others... so given the number of possible drop combinations, getting that specific one (identical drops for 6 weeks) would make me suspect a problem as well. You could be very unlucky, but it ain't likely. So yes, I agree with you :-)

(I don't know how many possibilities there are for each of those 120 drops, but if we assume 10 (8 classes + some random drops), then the chance of any specific combination will be 0.1^120. Or, in percentage terms, 0.0xxxx1% where the Xs are replaced by 116 more zeroes.)

[moopy]

6 times on row exactly the same BWL loot is unlikely, especially with the gold drops matching to the penny.

Me thinks Blizzard's random generator sometimes hangs.

Yep, inclinded to agree. While the less bright folks out there have built a new religion around reading too much into Markov chains observed in the drops, it's clear that the randomness isn't as.. random as it could be, Blizz really do put the "P" in PRNG.

That doesn't mean people should yell "2+2=16,777,216!!!!!!!!!!!eleven" as they are wont to do, and that there's some mechanic for influencing the drops in a reproduceable way, just that the PRNG isn't working well.

[Justinledwards]

Well, lets recall our programming days, you know rand(timer) etc

What if some random rolls are based off a seed from the server restart time? You would have weeks where similar stuff dropped, powerful knowledge

I would assume that the seed for an instance is set when instantiated (e.g. first party member walks in). However since rand is not a lot of processing power, the trash mobs are probably seeded when engaged or even killed, and probably even the bosses... ever noticed lag when looting? Could this be a database loot table rand / lookup?

Then over time, I would assume that the random rolls get hacked (by blizz themselves) because that is what happens to software... hey we need more of this, hey they are complaining about that. If you've done software development on a major app you know what I mean.

[wesje]

its random, completely, stop crying over the loot and grow up

[Tanitha]

Why? A percentage is merely a proportion. It's not as though there is one item to go around however many players are killing the mob....

On named mobs / bosses, aye - it works out to be a simple percentage. If you are talking about Stonesplinter Troggs though, as a simple example, it supposedly is worked out on all the Stonesplinter Troggs across that server. So if an item has a 1% drop chance it will drop every 100 kills for all players killing Stonesplinter Troggs - not just for you.

[Thumbtack]

its random, completely, stop crying over the loot and grow up

Lick my ass and touch your nose with your tongue.

[AeroJonesy]

Lick my ass and touch your nose with your tongue.

Consider this your warning. Next one like that is a 3-day temp ban.

[deamian]

Just a little tidbit of info.. mobs/bosses/creatures whatever it may be spawn with the loot on them.. they don't roll a magic die when they ...er die and then the loot shows up.. go to blasted lands and fight the humanoids there and you can see which grey weaps.. or greens.. purplz whatever.. they will be holding the weaps.

Contrary to some post of blizz employee saying it is generated when they die.

[babemomlover]

Just a little tidbit of info.. mobs/bosses/creatures whatever it may be spawn with the loot on them.. they don't roll a magic die when they ...er die and then the loot shows up.. go to blasted lands and fight the humanoids there and you can see which grey weaps.. or greens.. purplz whatever.. they will be holding the weaps.

Contrary to some post of blizz employee saying it is generated when they die.

Well.. I'm pretty sure if a blizzard employee says something.. I'm going to agree with him?
Or else people would go out through there and pick the mobs that have the phat epic weapons in their hands and kill them.

[YamahaGuy]

We farmed the mana tombs boss for his shield.

Killed him then reset instance.

About 5 times a day for 4-5 days. Some 20ish kills.

No shield.

One day, decided to have someone ELSE lead the group. It was always the same person.

Sure enough, the shield dropped.

Random? Hmmm. /roll 20-25 times and see how many are less than a 9.

I guess if your extremely unlucky (like myself) you'll never hit, and your shield will never drop.

Random. Puh.

Lastly

Botanica 1st boss dropped TWO pairs of the cloth gloves. What the heck.... Can't blizzard make Harbinger drop 2 breastplates for me please, instead of NONE?

[Elsion]

Something i've just sort of noticed in outlands is that there seem to be many more shammy and druid items in the loot tables of mobs. About 3/5 greens that drop for me are shammy or druid gear, and some of my guildies that farm say the same thing. It might still just be luck of the draw but the loot table simply has more gear for certain classes.

[ShawnHeat]

Lick my ass and touch your nose with your tongue.

No need to be crude, even if you dont like what someone says.Please reply with a more mature answer next time

[Edminion]

It isn't totally random, but the thing that determines it isn't in players control so if the loot you want isn't dropping, it is cause you are having bad luck, bear with it and just keep running the instance.

[moopy]

Something i've just sort of noticed in outlands is that there seem to be many more shammy and druid items in the loot tables of mobs. About 3/5 greens that drop for me are shammy or druid gear, and some of my guildies that farm say the same thing. It might still just be luck of the draw but the loot table simply has more gear for certain classes.

Nice theory. While every group says there is more of X, X tends to vary. We seem to get more caster loot than anything, yet caster-heavy groups complain about physical DPS loot. I think a lot of it is perception, if you were bored enough to record the drops you get (with raidtracker-style addons) and review it, you might well be surprised at the results, with a large enough sample size.

I think we notice the "wrong" loot more because it's annoying.

[rgirty]

Yeah, its pretty annoying when you down murmur night after night and he keeps dropping the tidefury pants.. when the mage/priest/lock/warrior in your group keeps hoping for at least one piece drop.

[YamahaGuy]

Loosing faith =(

Spent almost the whole weekend in arcatraz.

Random?

1 - Idol
2 - Thatias gaunts or fist wep
3 - Leather belt
4 - Tidefury chest / Healer neck

Repeat.
Repeat.
Repeat.
Repeat.

I dont think even the minibosses are so 'random'. Every time I was leader we got the imp.

When I wasn't one time, we got the phase hunter. I've never even seen that. I assumed diff minibosses came from heroic mode.

My comp are rigged.

Starting to get burnt out. See so many people with 4+ peices of 70 set item. I guess some people get hooked up fat.

Still on 3rd. Acratraz downed so many times.

No chest.
No chest.
No chest.
No chest.
No chest.
No chest.

I am now exalted with Sha'tar from trying for set peices.

No chest.

However, I did buy epic shield from quartermaster.

//spelling