I've been on the Official (whining) forums and read in various blue posts that one-shotting won't be possible in TBC due to the increased amount of life, but after doing some math I'm quite sure that mages will still be able to one-shot people, not as easy, but with some luck and planning.
Our 'test' will be done using a mage with
40/21 specc, which I see as max burst potential of mage builds. (I only picked talents that would help with pyro, all the other 1 and 2 spread are just fillers). As mages in current WoW can get ~1000 spell damage with trinkets I've estimated about 1400 spell damge with trinkets in TBC.. I've also guessed about 500int, which is a marginal increase to what I think mages have in live. The spell used is rank 10 Pyroblast which does 939 to 1191, giving 1065 as average. So, let's start the math:
First, the calculation order:
(((BASE+(spldmg*(cast/3.5*1))+int*MindMasterBonus)*PlayingWithFire*CoE*ArcaneInstability*ArcanePower*ImpScorch)*Crit
If we plugin all the numbers we get:
(((1065+(1400*(6/3,5*1))+500*0,25)*1,01*1,1*1,3*1,15)*1,1*1,15)*1,75 =14376,38139~14376
So, a mage will do about 14376 doing a Pyro on a target with CoE and Fire Vulnerability, and that is quite a hefty amount. If there's any part of the math that I've missed or done wrong, please point it out and I'll fix it, this is the order which I think spelldamage is calculated..
-Suicider